Fuzzy Trace Theory
Messages have two important elements; a “gist”—the essential meaningful information “verbatim” facts—details such as exact numbers
The gist, which reflects knowledge and experience, induces emotions and brings to mind social values.
Reyna and Brainerd 1995
Reyna 2021
Scientific information and mis/disinformation are in a battle for the gist.
A fuzzy-processing preference for simple gist explains expectations for antibiotics, the spread of misinformation about vaccination, and responses to messages about global warming, nuclear proliferation, and natural disasters.
Misinformation can be more compelling than fact if it offers a reality that makes better sense than the facts—if it explains “why.”
Fuzzy Trace Theory (Framing)
Imagine the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume the exact scientific estimates of the consequences are as follows:
- Program A: 400 people will die.
- Program B: there is a one-third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die
- Program C: 200 people will be saved.
- Program D: there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved.
Storytelling
The Genetic Motive…
The Epistemic Motive…
“Seeing is believing, believing is knowing, and knowing beats unknowing and the unknown.” –Philip Roth
The Social Motive…
Disinformation
Originators of disinformation take full advantage, using the neuroscience behind story-telling to begin or perpetuate false narratives that have very real effects on their targets.
We are overwhelmed with information, and that often means we take short-cuts with our logic, including the one described in fuzzy-trace theory. If most people comprehend the gist and focus less on verbatim fact, readers are more susceptible to the bias of the author.
Combatting it is not just a technological problem—you need to rebuild trust.
Questions?
Debora J. Pfaff, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Research
Ann Caracristi Institute
National Intelligence University, ODNI
Debora.J.Pfaff@odni.gov